One year after the much ballyhooed, yet dangerously de-stabilizing so-called P5 +1 Iranian nuclear weapons negotiations were announced, it was declared today, Monday November 24, 2014 that no final deal could be sealed. New interim (March 1, 2015) and final (July 1, 2015) deadlines for continued negotiations were proclaimed, instead.
Prior to the announcement, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had lauded this ultimate development as the preferred, if hardly ideal, outcome.
No deal is better than a bad deal. The right deal that is needed is to dismantle Iran’s capacity to make atomic bombs and only then dismantle the sanctions. Since that’s not in the offing, this result is better, a lot better.
Expanding upon Mr. Netanyahu’s observations, the lack of a signed agreement provides Israel with a fortuitous, if evanescent strategic opportunity.
Last Thursday, 11/20/2014, reviewing more than a decade of International Atomic Energy Agency findings (and other investigative findings) a 104 pp. report concluded that the Iranian regime—despite repeated, disingenuous countervailing protests—had, “vigorously pursued its ambitions to obtain nuclear weapons.” Tehran continued to engage in “systematic,” “vigorous” combined military, and dual military-civilian efforts, “such as enrichment, weaponization, warhead, and delivery system at some stage,” whose ultimate goal was procuring nuclear weapons capability.
In other words, Iran has worked on specific programs and projects to master all necessary aspects of obtaining a nuclear weapon
Moreover, the November 20, 2014 report noted, there were, “no serious indications that Tehran has stopped or abandoned this project or intends to do so.” Iran, on the contrary, “has resorted to further secrecy and concealment to keep its program intact and unhindered.” Additional discoveries and data all underscore how “a military program and military related activities,” remain “at the heart of the Iranian nuclear program.”
Just 11 days earlier, on November 9, 2014, Iran’s theocratic leader, Ayatollah Khamenei reiterated his ceaseless call for the jihad annihilation of Israel, via his twitter account, in a “question and answer” tweet: Why should & how can #Israel be eliminated? Ayatollah Khamenei’s answer to 9 key questions. #HandsOffAlAqsa “9 key questions about elimination of Israel”. Khamenei argued that the “only means” of halting alleged “Israeli crimes,” was “the elimination of this regime.” He recommended, specifically, for this purpose,
The West Bank should be armed like Gaza…those who are interested in Palestine’s destiny should take action to arm the people of the West Bank.
Ayatollah Khamenei justified this call for an annihilationist jihad by concluding,
Yasser Arafat was poisoned and killed by Israel, while he had the most cooperation with the Zionists [which] proves that in the viewpoint of Israel, “peace” is simply a trick for more crimes and occupation.
It is past time for all those who aren’t ignoring the Iranian nuclear threat, or abiding either the Left (Trusting Khomeini/Khamenei/Rohani) or Right (Trusting Montazeri/The Green Movement) Mental Delusion Syndromes, to argue, vociferously, that Israel strike, now, as a temporizing measure.
For whomever are dismissive, or disbelieving when I talk of the Trusting Montazeri/The Green Movement Delusion Syndrome that prevails amongst “Conservatives,” it was re-stated just over a month ago (October 10, 2014) in a Caroline Glick essay endorsing this delusive nonsense by self-proclaimed “Iran expert” Michael Ledeen:
Dr. Michael Ledeen, Freedom Scholar at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies has been closely following the Iranian regime since he served in the Reagan administration in the 1980s. In 2009, he argued that even without US assistance, if Israel had been willing to help the Green Movement, with little effort, it could have empowered the opposition sufficiently to overthrow the regime. In a conversation this week, Ledeen said Israel still has the capacity to provide opposition forces the tools they require to overthrow the regime.
In stark contrast, here is what I advocated two weeks ago (11/10/14), in a Pajamas Media essay (“End the Bush-Obama Fecklessness: Destroy Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Now”), and reiterate even more strongly now that we see yet more continued obfuscation/delay ahead, but at least not even the faҫade of agreement which gives Israel another window of opportunity—i.e., there is no “deal” affirmed that the Israelis are “sabotaging,” let alone bound to uphold.
The question arises as to why more than 12-years after the August 14, 2002 revelations about Iran’s Natanz and Arak uranium enrichment installations—6-years under the Bush II Administration, and another 6-years (and counting) during the Obama Administration—sound, practical geostrategic arguments, and actions, such as those advocated by Professor Kroenig, have been dismissed. My own study, published March, 2014 (Iran’s Final Solution For Israel: The Legacy of Jihad and Shi’ite Islamic Jew-Hatred in Iran), examined at some length, the origins of this tragic, yet entirely avoidable failure of imagination, and will, rooted in intellectual sloth, and cowardice…
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Deputy Commander Brigadier-General Hossein Salami made the following comments at a conference held in Tehran, which aired on Al-Alam TV on March 11, 2014:
“Despite the geographical distance, we are attached to the hearts of the Palestinians. How is it that our slogans and goals are identical to the slogans and causes of the Palestinians? Why do we strive to become martyrs and risk our lives for the Palestinian cause? The answer is that the religion of Islam has designated this for us – this goal, this motivation, this belief, this energy – so that we, here, can muster all our energies in order to annihilate the Zionist entity, more than 1,400 kilometers away. We are ready for that moment in the future.”
The “Trusting Khomeini-Khamenei” brain trust shaping current Obama Administration Iran policy maintains the good general Salami doesn’t mean any of this, and it is somehow mere “cultural bluster.” Conservative “Trusting Montazeri,” self-styled “Iran shenasans” (“Iran experts”) would argue the good general is simply “distorting” Shiite Islam and we must be patient, support the Soylent Green Movement of Iranian Jeffersonian Democrats, and at some unstated future time point, “regime replacement” will solve the Iranian nuclear weapons, and all other such problems engendered by the “distortion of Shiite Islam.” Accordingly, we must ignore the hard data that show 83% support for the Sharia in Iran, or the 63% of Iranians who insisted that Iran should continue to develop its nuclear program, even at the height of the period of strictest international economic sanctions against the Islamic Republic
Till now, those are your Iran policy options from the ones who control such discourse—and current or planned actions—across the political and ideological spectrum. As a potential alternative to this dangerously misguided policy morass, I queried Professor Kroenig about the possibility of urgent Israeli airstrikes. Kroenig’s A Time to Attack argues persuasively about the limitations of such an Israeli campaign, Israel lacking any known capability, for example, to penetrate the deeply embedded fortifications of Iran’s Qom/Fordow uranium enrichment facility. However, given what is truly needed two-years from now, hope against hope—a complete U.S. political and policymaking class “regime change”—I offer Professor Kroenig’s temporizing solution until the U.S. regains its geostrategic and moral bearings:
“As a last resort, an Israeli strike, and the year or two of breathing space, at minimum, it would buy, would be preferable to acquiescing to a nuclear Iran.”